Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
23%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently prices this at roughly one-in-four odds, reflecting a modest but real chance of a Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US over the next two years. This probability fell slightly over the past day and declined more substantially over the past week, suggesting recent sentiment has shifted toward a lower likelihood of such an event occurring in the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if any hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130–156 mph makes landfall on the US coastline before the end of 2026. It resolves No if no such storm reaches the US coast by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 23% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -4 pt |
| 7d change | -7 pt |
| Market volume | $334K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Active hurricane seasons or storm tracks toward the US coast could shift odds upward; conversely, quieter periods or storms that miss the US could lower them further.
- The market resolves at year-end 2026, leaving roughly two full hurricane seasons for a qualifying landfall to occur—less time left limits how far odds can drift.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
