Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
64%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
At better than even, favoured odds, the market is pricing a roughly two-in-three chance that 2026 finishes as the second-hottest year on record. The probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent uncertainty, though the odds remain well above a coin flip. This level reflects confidence in a very warm 2026, though not the top spot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index historical record when all years are ranked by temperature in descending order. The ranking will be finalized by December 31, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 64% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -3 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $352K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The final Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ranking for 2026 will be released after year-end and will directly settle the market.
- With less than two years until resolution, limited time remains for major shifts in climate conditions or temperature data methodology to alter where 2026 ultimately ranks.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
