Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
64%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether 2026 will rank second-warmest among all years in the temperature record, reflecting expectations of continued warming momentum.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 64% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -3 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $351K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.