Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
84%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Michael Olise is strongly favoured, around four-in-five to lead the tournament in assists. The market rose slightly over the past day, though it has drifted down by 3 points over the week, suggesting some uncertainty despite the high probability. At this level, the market is pricing him as a clear frontrunner but not a near-certainty.
How this market resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Michael Olise records more assists than any other player across all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by August 3, 2026. In the event of a tie, FIFA World Cup rules determine the official leader; if multiple players are tied, the player with more completed passes during the tournament wins the tiebreaker.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 84% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $72K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-03 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Injuries or squad changes to Olise or competing playmakers between now and the tournament could shift the odds materially.
- Performance in qualifiers and warm-up matches closer to 2026 may prompt repricing as the tournament nears.
- The resolution hinges on official FIFA records; any dispute over assist attribution or tiebreaker application could affect how the market settles.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.