Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
36%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is currently priced at about a third, indicating traders see a meaningful but minority chance of WTI dipping to $65 in July. Odds rose slightly over the past day, though they have fallen notably over the past week, suggesting recent price action or sentiment has made this threshold seem somewhat less likely than it did seven days ago.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if WTI Crude Oil futures reach $65 or below at any point during a 1-minute trading candle in July 2026; it resolves No otherwise. Settlement occurs by August 1, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 36% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +3 pt |
| 7d change | -30 pt |
| Market volume | $416K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Oil price direction and volatility in early July 2026 will be the primary driver; any sharp selloff could push the contract toward $65, while sustained strength would make it less likely.
- Major supply or demand shocks—geopolitical events, production changes, or economic data—could move the underlying WTI price sharply and shift odds closer to the deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.