Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome with odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting skepticism that crude will breach the all-time high threshold within the two-year window. The move has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has drifted up by 4 percentage points over the past week, suggesting modest shifts in conviction among traders about the likelihood of that price level being touched.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the official daily high price for the CME Active Month Crude Oil futures contract exceeds $147.27 on any trading day through December 31, 2026, according to CME Group data. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +4 pt |
| Market volume | $321K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Significant oil supply shocks or geopolitical events could sharpen price moves; the CME's official daily high is the binding metric.
- More than two years remain before the December 2026 deadline, leaving substantial time for price swings to alter the probability.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
