Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
45%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at roughly even odds, with the probability having fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent skepticism about Russian capture. A reading near 45 percent means traders see the question as competitive but currently leaning toward Russia not capturing the full municipality by year-end 2026.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the ISW map shows the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, shaded red (indicating Russian control) by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves No if any part of the municipality remains uncontrolled by Russia by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 45% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | +4 pt |
| Market volume | $346K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Changes to the ISW map's depiction of control in Kostyantynivka will directly affect market pricing as the resolution date approaches.
- With roughly two years until the December 2026 deadline, significant shifts in the front-line position or pace of Russian advance could narrow or widen the odds.
- Any official ceasefire or territorial agreement that formally settles the status of the municipality would likely trigger immediate resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
