Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low probability of Russian capture of this specific location within the timeframe. The market moved down by 2 points over the past week while remaining unchanged over the last 24 hours, suggesting some modest erosion of capture expectations but no sharp recent shift in near-term sentiment.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Russia captures the Sumy railroad station (located on Pryvokzalna ploscha) by March 31, 2027, as indicated by the station appearing shaded red on the ISW map. Resolution is determined by the map's status at 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $336K |
| Resolves by | 2027-03-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The ISW map serves as the sole arbiter—any visible change in the station's shading on that source would move odds, though map updates may lag actual control changes on the ground.
- With nearly three years until expiration, major military developments or territorial shifts in the Sumy region could substantially alter perceived likelihood before the deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
