Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
24%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing Russia's capture of all of Lyman by year-end 2026 at roughly one-in-four odds, reflecting significant skepticism about whether this specific objective will be fully achieved in the timeframe. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day, though they dipped slightly over the week, suggesting modest recent caution among traders about Russian territorial gains in this area.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Russia controls the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, as shown by the ISW map being fully shaded red for that municipality by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Partial control or contested territory does not resolve Yes.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 24% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $210K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- ISW map updates showing Russian control expansion or stalling in Lyman will directly drive resolution signals; any shift toward or away from full municipality control is the primary mechanism for price movement.
- The two-year window to the December 2026 deadline allows time for major shifts in the conflict, but thinner liquidity or new developments in the broader campaign could cause sharper probability swings.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
