Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
60%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome as a slight favourite, just over even, implying meaningful but uncertain probability of Russian capture within the timeframe. The market fell slightly over the past day and declined 2 points over the week, suggesting modest erosion in confidence in a Russian advance to this specific location by year-end 2026.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Lyman railroad station is shaded red on the ISW map by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, indicating Russian capture. It resolves No if the station remains unshaded red by that deadline.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 60% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $363K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Changes to the ISW map status of the Lyman railroad station would directly move odds; any map update indicating a shift in control would be reflected immediately.
- The timeframe extends roughly two years from now, leaving substantial room for military dynamics to shift the assessment of capture likelihood before the December 2026 deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
