Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
93%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain that Russia will capture this location within the timeframe, reflecting a high implied probability. Odds were unchanged over the past day but have risen 9 percentage points over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in a Russian capture. At this level, the market is pricing the event as likely to occur well before the end-of-2026 deadline.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if the ISW map shows the Kostyantynivka railroad station on Pravoberezhna vulytsia shaded red—indicating Russian capture—by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves No if the station remains unshaded red by that deadline.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 93% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +9 pt |
| Market volume | $927K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any shift in ISW's map assessment of Russian control over the station would directly trigger resolution; the map is the sole authoritative source.
- With over two years until the deadline, sustained warfare dynamics or major front shifts could alter near-term probability, though thin time margins before late 2026 will eventually constrain how far odds can move.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.