Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
73%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five to see OpenAI hit a $900B valuation by year-end 2026. However, it fell sharply (-20 pts) over the past day, suggesting recent downward pressure on confidence in reaching that threshold. The current probability reflects meaningful skepticism despite the overall bullish lean.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if OpenAI's valuation on the Nasdaq Private Market reaches or exceeds $900 billion on any trading day through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No on January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 73% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -20 pt |
| 7d change | -17 pt |
| Market volume | $98K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- NPM price updates on trading days will directly move this — any announcement of a new funding round or major corporate action could shift the valuation sharply either way.
- Roughly one year remains until the December 31, 2026 deadline; sustained shifts in tech investor sentiment or OpenAI's business performance could drive material repricing before resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
