Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
77%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether at least one month in 2026 will set a new global temperature record for that month, with current odds suggesting it's more likely than not.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 77% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $143K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-10 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.