Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
80%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five for this outcome. Odds rose slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent confidence in a record-breaking month occurring in 2026. At this level, traders are pricing in a high likelihood that at least one of the 12 months will exceed all previous records for that calendar month.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if any month of 2026 is the hottest that month has ever been on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The market settles by January 10, 2027, once 2026 temperature data is released.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 80% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +4 pt |
| 7d change | +5 pt |
| Market volume | $144K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-10 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Temperature readings released monthly through the year will influence whether any month sets a record; early anomalies could shift odds if they demonstrate the trend or lack thereof.
- The resolution date in January 2027 is fixed and allows no ambiguity once final 2026 data is published—timing of that release could crystallize odds near the deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
