Record crypto liquidation in 2026?
8%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting skepticism that liquidations will surpass the all-time high in the coming year. Sentiment has rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, suggesting a modest uptick in conviction, though the probability remains low. At this level, the market is treating a record-breaking liquidation event as a tail risk — possible but not expected under typical market conditions.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if a single crypto liquidation event exceeds the historical record of $19.16 billion at any point during 2026, as measured by CoinGlass liquidation data. It resolves by January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 8% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $70K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Significant crypto volatility or a major market shock in 2026 could drive liquidations higher; conversely, a stable year would keep them well below the threshold.
- CoinGlass data updates and methodology changes are the sole arbiter — any dispute over how liquidations are counted could affect settlement.
- The market resolves in just over a year; thin time remains for odds to shift unless material crypto market stress emerges.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
