Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
80%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that China's 2026 annual GDP growth will land in the 4.0–5.0% band. This implies significant confidence that growth will stay within that relatively narrow window, neither accelerating sharply above 5% nor slowing below 4%. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day, though they have shifted 1 percentage point higher over the week, suggesting mild recent confidence in this outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for the full calendar year 2026 falls between 4.0% and 5.0%, as reported in the official Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP release expected in January 2027. It resolves No if the reported growth rate falls outside that range.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 80% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $177K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The official GDP release in January 2027 is the sole arbiter; any revisions to the preliminary figure would potentially reset how markets interpret the outcome.
- Economic data releases and policy moves in 2026 could shift expectations well before the January publication, but the actual reported figure will determine resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
