Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
67%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing the S&P 500 as better than even, favoured to outperform Bitcoin and Gold in 2026. This roughly two-in-three probability reflects traders' expectation that equities will deliver the strongest returns among the three assets. The market fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent caution about S&P 500 outperformance odds, though the 7-day move was essentially flat.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the S&P 500 has the highest percentage price gain in 2026 compared to Bitcoin and Gold, measured from January 1 to December 31, 2026. It resolves No if either Bitcoin or Gold outperforms the S&P 500 over that period.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 67% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $180K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Relative performance of the three assets in early 2026 will likely shift odds as traders update expectations based on actual year-to-date returns.
- Major economic or policy shifts affecting equities, cryptocurrencies, or safe-haven demand could alter the relative appeal of each asset class before year-end.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
