Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
42%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether SpaceX will achieve at least five successful Starship launches to space in 2026, with current odds suggesting meaningful uncertainty about hitting that specific target cadence.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 42% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +4 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $112K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.