New pandemic in 2026?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at single-digit, unlikely odds, suggesting traders view a WHO pandemic declaration in 2026 as a low-probability event. The price has remained unchanged over the past day but has drifted down by 3 percentage points over the week, indicating a slight cooling in concern relative to earlier trading. At this level, the market is pricing in substantial skepticism that pandemic conditions will meet WHO's declaration threshold within the calendar year.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization officially declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No by end of year 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $887K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official WHO pandemic declaration at any point during 2026 would immediately resolve this to Yes; absence of such a declaration through year-end resolves it No.
- The wide time window remaining (all of 2026) leaves room for odds to shift if disease surveillance reports or outbreak data shift market expectations, though the low current price limits upside room.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
