Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting substantial skepticism about a launch within the timeframe. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day, though they have drifted down slightly over the week, suggesting modest erosion in confidence. At this probability level, the market is treating a launch by the end of 2026 as a low-probability outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No. Resolution will be confirmed using official SpaceX video and secondary sources as needed.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $851K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official SpaceX announcements or launch schedule updates would be the primary driver — any confirmed launch date materially before the deadline could shift odds meaningfully.
- Time is a key constraint: as the December 2026 deadline approaches, the window for a launch narrows, which could further compress odds if no launch has occurred.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
