Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at a remote chance, reflecting the low historical frequency of Ebola spreading to pandemic scale. The odds have weakened by 3 percentage points over the past week, though they remained unchanged in the last 24 hours, suggesting modest recent skepticism but no major shift in sentiment.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease or any Ebola strain as a "pandemic" in an official public communication by December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $644K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official WHO characterization of Ebola as a pandemic would settle the market immediately to Yes; absent such a statement, the December 31, 2026 deadline will trigger a No resolution.
- Disease surveillance reports and outbreak announcements over the next two years could shift odds if they indicate widening geographic spread, though the WHO's specific use of the word "pandemic" is the binding criterion.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
