FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a roughly 12% chance of FDA approval within the resolution window. Over the past week, sentiment has drifted slightly lower, down 2 percentage points, suggesting modest skepticism about approval timing despite the drug's multiple indications in trial.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration grants full or conditional approval for a drug product containing Eli Lilly's retatrutide as its active ingredient by December 31, 2026. It resolves No if no such approval is granted by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $576K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Clinical trial outcomes or FDA guidance letters could shift odds sharply if they signal approval likelihood or delays.
- Any official FDA action—whether an approval decision or a complete response letter—would directly settle the market.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
