Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
13%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a roughly 13 percent chance all three conditions align by the deadline. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and fallen slightly over the week, suggesting steady skepticism that such a comprehensive settlement will materialize within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market settles Yes only if all three conditions are met by December 31, 2026: a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine's agreement not to join NATO, and a signed peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Any other outcome—including if even one condition fails—resolves it No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 13% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $541K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official ceasefire announcements or peace negotiations advancing could shift odds; conversely, escalation or breakdown of talks would likely lower them further.
- Public statements from Ukraine or Russia on NATO membership or peace terms may trigger repricing as the deadline approaches.
- With roughly two years until December 2026, sustained time remains for diplomatic developments to move the probability, though current pricing reflects substantial doubt all three conditions will be satisfied.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
