Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
19%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting skepticism that MetaMask's token will reach a $300M FDV within a day of launch. The probability fell slightly (-1 pts) over 24 hours and has declined by 3 points over the past week, suggesting modest erosion in confidence for this near-term valuation target. At this level, traders see it as a low-probability event, though not a negligible one.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if MetaMask's token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $300 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes actively publicly transferable and tradable. It resolves No otherwise, by 2027-01-01.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 19% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $76K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Timing and details of MetaMask's actual token launch announcement would anchor expectations for day-one FDV; any official communication about launch plans or tokenomics could shift pricing.
- Thin volume ($76k) means large individual trades could cause visible odds moves; the long runway to 2027-01-01 allows for gradual repricing as launch approaches.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
