Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
74%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that Extended's token FDV will exceed $150M one day post-launch. This level reflects confidence in reaching that valuation threshold immediately upon trading. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has declined slightly over the past week, suggesting modest cooling in conviction since a week ago.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Extended's token has a fully diluted valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) greater than $150M exactly one day after its public launch. The token must be actively tradable to count as launched, and resolution occurs by January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 74% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $431K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any announcement of an actual launch date would narrow the remaining time window and could trigger repricing as launch approaches.
- Broader crypto market conditions and comparable token launches before the 2027 deadline may shift expectations about early valuations.
- Thin trading volume relative to the probability concentration means large position moves could shift odds noticeably.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
