Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
26%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly one-in-four odds, suggesting skepticism that the token will reach that valuation threshold immediately post-launch. Probability fell slightly over the past day, continuing a week-long decline that has pulled odds down by about 4 percentage points, indicating gradually weakening confidence in a high opening-day valuation.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Opensea's token has a fully diluted valuation above $100 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes actively and publicly tradable. It resolves by January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 26% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $265K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Timing of the actual token launch and public trading availability will be the critical trigger; until that occurs, the resolution date and launch-day FDV remain unknown.
- The definition of "launch" (active, public tradeability) is the gate—any dispute over whether those conditions are met could affect settlement interpretation.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
