GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
98%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain to resolve Yes, with an implied probability of 98%. Odds rose slightly over the past day, suggesting steady confidence in a post-launch FDV above the $100M threshold. At this level, traders are pricing in a high likelihood that the token will trade at a valuation meeting or exceeding that mark once it becomes publicly available.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if GRVT's governance token has a fully diluted valuation (total supply × price) above $100M on the day after its public launch. The token must be actively tradable to count as launched, and the market settles by January 1, 2028.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 98% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $200K |
| Resolves by | 2028-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Token launch timing and initial market conditions on day one will directly determine the FDV measurement used to settle the market.
- Any significant delays to the announced launch window, or failure to achieve public tradeability, could prevent resolution until a launch actually occurs.
- Thin volume of $200k leaves room for large moves if new information about launch plans or tokenomics emerges before the January 2028 deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
