Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
66%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is priced at better than even, favoured at 66%, suggesting participants see a majority-level likelihood that Abstract's token will exceed the $200M FDV threshold shortly after launch. The probability rose notably (+5 pts) in the past day, indicating increased confidence or fresh information pointing toward a higher valuation outcome in the near term.
How this market resolves
The market settles Yes if Abstract's governance token has a fully diluted valuation exceeding $200M one day after its launch; otherwise it settles No. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch, with FDV calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves by January 1, 2028.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 66% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +5 pt |
| 7d change | +5 pt |
| Market volume | $108K |
| Resolves by | 2028-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The exact launch date will determine the resolution window; any delay or postponement could push the settlement date further out, leaving more time for market repricing.
- Token supply details and initial pricing at launch will directly determine FDV; material changes to either could shift the threshold-crossing probability.
- Liquidity and market depth on launch day will affect tradability confirmation and price discovery, both required for a valid resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
