StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
19%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting skepticism that StandX will reach an $800 million FDV within a day of going live. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has drifted up by 1 percentage point over the week, suggesting modest underlying confidence has firmed slightly but conviction remains low.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if StandX's token achieves a fully diluted valuation above $800 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its public launch. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched, and the market settles by January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 19% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $333K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Confirmation of an official launch date and token details would establish the settlement timeline; without a scheduled launch, the market has until early 2027 to resolve.
- Early trading momentum and exchange listings after launch would directly drive the FDV calculation on the settlement day.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
