Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?
57%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is priced at a slight favourite, just over even, implying roughly balanced uncertainty about whether the token will exceed this valuation threshold shortly after launch. Odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest downward pressure on launch-day FDV expectations, though the 7-day move shows no net change, indicating near-term sentiment remains relatively stable.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Unit's governance token has a fully diluted valuation (total token supply × token price) exceeding $200M on the day after its public launch, and No otherwise. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to count as a launch, and the market settles by January 1, 2028.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 57% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $79K |
| Resolves by | 2028-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Announcement of a specific launch date would narrow the time window and potentially trigger repricing based on token supply and price-discovery expectations.
- Any public information about Unit's token supply mechanics or pre-launch investor valuation could shift odds as traders update FDV projections.
- Thin volume relative to the 2028 deadline leaves room for moves if new information about the project emerges.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
