Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
57%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
At a slight favourite, just over even, the market is pricing roughly even odds that Ink's token will reach a $250M fully diluted valuation within its first day of trading. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has drifted down by 3 points over the week, suggesting modest softening in conviction about an immediate high valuation at launch.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ink's token has a fully diluted valuation above $250M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its public launch (when the token becomes actively tradable). It resolves No otherwise, by 2027-01-01.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 57% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $110K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The exact launch date and initial trading volume will determine when the resolution snapshot occurs; any delay or cancellation of the launch would reset market timing.
- Thin time left before the 2027-01-01 deadline means this will likely resolve well before then, once the token launches and the 24-hour mark passes.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
