Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?
19%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting substantial skepticism that MetaMask will complete a token launch within the timeframe. The odds fell slightly in the past day, suggesting modest recent downward pressure on the probability, though the move7d was flat, pointing to relative stability in how the market has priced this over the past week.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if MetaMask officially launches a token that is actively and publicly transferable and tradable by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026; announcements alone do not qualify. It resolves No otherwise.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 19% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $312K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official MetaMask announcement of a token launch plan could move odds, but only a confirmed live, tradable token would settle it Yes.
- As the December 31, 2026 deadline approaches, lack of any public movement toward a launch would likely reinforce the low probability already priced in.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
