Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
22%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly one-in-four odds, suggesting skepticism about a launch within the timeframe. The probability fell notably over 24 hours, pointing to waning confidence among traders. At this level, the market is treating an official token launch as unlikely but not a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market settles Yes if Donald Trump officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, confirmed through official social media posts or public statements, and the token is actively and publicly transferable. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 22% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -5 pt |
| 7d change | -6 pt |
| Market volume | $78K |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement or token launch by Trump would immediately resolve the question; the threshold is public confirmation through official channels.
- More than a year remains before the December 31, 2026 deadline, leaving substantial time for conditions or trader sentiment to shift.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
