Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
25%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
At roughly one-in-four odds, the market is pricing a below-even chance that the token's FDV will exceed $25M within a day of launch. The probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting marginal skepticism about reaching that valuation threshold early. This implies the market sees the target as a meaningful but not unlikely outcome.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Felix Protocol's token has a fully diluted valuation (total supply × token price) exceeding $25M on the day after its public launch. The token must be actively tradable and publicly transferable to count as launched.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 25% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | -5 pt |
| Market volume | $83K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The resolution hinges on token launch timing and initial trading price — neither has occurred, so the probability can shift sharply once a launch date is announced.
- No fixed deadline is stated, leaving uncertainty about how long the market remains open; clarification of when resolution can occur would inform how odds may move.
- Thin volume relative to the question's novelty suggests limited trader interest, which could allow odds to drift if new information about launch plans emerges.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
