Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
The current odds suggest markets view formal US NATO withdrawal as highly unlikely over the next two years, though geopolitical risks remain inherent to any long-term alliance.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.2M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.