Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
14%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing Iran's withdrawal as unlikely, with odds in the teens reflecting a low baseline probability of such a formal diplomatic move. The probability rose slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent shifts in sentiment, though the overall assessment remains that withdrawal before the end of 2026 is a long shot. The modest trading volume indicates moderate but not intense market interest in this outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article X by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 14% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +2 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $259K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official Iranian government announcements or UN notifications would directly trigger or rule out resolution; the mechanism is binary and requires formal written notice.
- Roughly two years remain until the deadline — enough time for geopolitical developments to shift odds, but a formal withdrawal would be a significant and deliberate state action, not a routine occurrence.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
