Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a roughly one-in-nine chance. The probability has moved down slightly over the past week, suggesting modest erosion in expectations for Ukrainian territorial recapture of Crimea within the timeframe. The current level implies most traders view significant Ukrainian advances into Crimea by end-2026 as a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine controls any territory in Crimea according to the ISW map by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.8M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in frontline control or military momentum could shift pricing, though the bar is simply any Crimean territory captured by the resolution date.
- Thin time remains before the December 2026 deadline; any official territorial changes reflected on the ISW map would directly settle the outcome.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
