Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
22%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at roughly one-in-four odds, reflecting a low but non-negligible expectation of a ceasefire agreement by year-end 2026. The probability was unchanged over the past day and shifted down by 1 percentage point over the week, suggesting steady but slight pessimism about the likelihood of this condition being met within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is officially agreed and goes into effect by 11:59 PM EET on December 31, 2026, and remains continuously in place for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 22% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $199K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A formal ceasefire announcement with mutual agreement would be the direct catalyst; the 10-day continuity requirement means any pause must hold for at least that duration to trigger a Yes resolution.
- Nearly two years remain until the deadline, leaving substantial time for diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict to move odds, though the current weak probability reflects skepticism about such a resolution within that window.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
