Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and flat over the week. A 4% probability reflects skepticism that any member will formally initiate departure within the next two years, despite periodic political tensions within the alliance.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if any NATO member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides official written notice of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $313K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any official withdrawal notice submitted by a member state would trigger immediate resolution; the formal notification process itself is the settlement mechanism.
- Time remaining until the end of 2026 is substantial, allowing room for political shifts, though the requirement for formal denunciation sets a high bar relative to rhetorical disputes.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
