GEOPOLITICS
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
94%
Trajectory (1y → today), from Polymarket price history
Context
Markets assess a very high likelihood Russia will control this Ukrainian railroad station within roughly two years, reflecting current military momentum in the region.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 94% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +5 pt |
| Market volume | $857K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-06 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.