Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
38%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome a bit below even, reflecting more skepticism than confidence that Netanyahu will leave office within the next two years. The probability rose notably over the past day, suggesting a recent shift in sentiment, though the market remains tilted toward his remaining in power. The seven-day move shows broader uncertainty, with net downward pressure offsetting the recent single-day gain.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel at any point before December 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date will immediately resolve it to Yes; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 38% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +7 pt |
| 7d change | -9 pt |
| Market volume | $1.9M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of resignation or removal would immediately settle the question; any political crisis or legal development could shift the odds sharply.
- The December 2026 deadline leaves over a year for events to unfold; thin time remaining closer to that date would limit how far probabilities can drift in either direction.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
