Iran Nuke before 2027?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting a low perceived probability of Iranian nuclear possession within the next two years. The odds remained unchanged over the past day and declined slightly by one point over the week, suggesting modest skepticism about near-term weaponization despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. At this level, most traders view confirmed nuclear capability before the end of 2026 as an unlikely outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news sources officially confirm Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.1M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official announcements from Iran, international nuclear agencies, or major news outlets would directly settle the resolution; absent such confirmation, the market will likely drift toward either resolution as the deadline approaches.
- Roughly two years remain until the close date, leaving time for significant geopolitical shifts, though thin time windows near year-end 2026 could limit odds movement.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
