Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low perceived chance of early elections in the next two years. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and edged up only slightly over the week, suggesting little recent shift in market expectations about Turkish electoral timing.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Turkey's government or presidency officially announces early presidential elections scheduled before the normally planned 2028 election, between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $130K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement from Turkish government or presidency authorities would directly trigger resolution either way.
- Political instability or a major shift in Turkey's domestic situation could shift expectations before the end-2026 deadline, though the market currently discounts such a development.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
