Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and flat across the week. At this level, traders assess impeachment as unlikely within the timeframe, though not ruled out entirely.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the US House of Representatives votes by simple majority to approve one or more articles of impeachment against President Trump between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026. A Senate trial or conviction is not required; only the House impeachment vote matters.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $962K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major political developments or investigations into the President could shift sentiment, though the resolution window is less than two years away.
- House composition and party control matter; any shift in political dynamics or formal charges could move odds, but time to December 2026 remains limited for large swings.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
