Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
69%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is currently priced at better than even, favoured, reflecting a roughly seven-in-ten implied probability of impeachment before the term ends. Odds have remained unchanged over the past day, though they have shifted up by 2 percentage points over the week, suggesting modest recent uptick in traders' assessment of impeachment likelihood.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the US House of Representatives votes to approve one or more articles of impeachment against President Trump by January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET. A Senate trial or conviction is not required — only the House vote matters.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 69% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $71K |
| Resolves by | 2029-01-20 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- House legislative activity or statements by leadership could signal willingness to initiate impeachment proceedings.
- The deadline of January 20, 2029 leaves time for political circumstances to shift, but any movement in odds will ultimately hinge on whether a House majority vote occurs before that date.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
