Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
The current odds suggest markets view the incumbent president as a heavy underdog in Guinea-Bissau's November 2025 election, indicating significant political headwinds or strong opposition.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $89K |
| Resolves by | 2025-11-23 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.