Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Embaló's chances at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and up slightly by 1 percentage point over the week. This reflects a very low probability assessment of his winning, suggesting the market sees him as a long-shot candidate in the race.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Umaro Sissoco Embaló wins the Guinea-Bissau presidential election scheduled for November 23, 2025, or in a potential runoff on November 30, 2025 if no candidate secures over 50% of valid votes in the first round. Resolution will occur once the official winner is determined.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $90K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official results from the first or second round of voting in late November 2025 will determine the outcome directly.
- Any significant pre-election developments or polling shifts could adjust odds before voting occurs, though the current thin probability leaves limited room for further decline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
