Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing a remote chance of parliamentary dissolution by the deadline, with the probability unchanged over the past day. The roughly 2% implied probability suggests traders view dissolution as an unlikely event in the specified timeframe, though not impossible.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are both dissolved by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No. Resolution will be based on official information from the Romanian government or credible reporting consensus.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $94K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official dissolution action by the Romanian government would directly settle the market; any constitutional or political crisis could alter the current pricing.
- Over 18 months remain until the July 2026 deadline, allowing substantial time for political circumstances to shift the probability materially.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
