Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
88%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain to see a parliamentary dissolution by the deadline, currently priced at roughly nine-in-ten odds. This view rose notably over the past day, suggesting recent developments or news have increased confidence in a dissolution occurring within the specified window. At this level, traders are treating a Knesset dissolution before the end of July 2026 as the baseline expectation rather than a surprise outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Israeli Knesset is dissolved between January 27 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on official government sources or credible reporting consensus. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 88% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +10 pt |
| 7d change | +14 pt |
| Market volume | $158K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official announcements from Israeli government sources regarding Knesset dissolution would directly settle the market once confirmed.
- The seven-month window to the July 31 deadline allows time for political circumstances to shift, though the current high odds leave limited room for the probability to drift much higher.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
