Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), implying a roughly 10% chance Merz leaves office within the timeframe. The probability is unchanged over the past day, though it has declined by 4 percentage points over the past week, suggesting modest cooling in expectations of an early exit. At this level, the market sees continuity in the chancellorship as the base case.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany at any point by December 31, 2026, or if he announces his resignation or removal before that date, even if the departure is scheduled for later. It resolves No if he remains Chancellor through the end of 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $351K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An announcement of resignation, removal, or political collapse would resolve this immediately to Yes, even if the actual transition occurs after the deadline.
- With less than two years until the December 31, 2026 close date, major shifts in German political conditions or coalition stability could influence pricing before then.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
