Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting a very low probability of all three conditions aligning after the 2026 midterms. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day and risen slightly by 1 point over the week, suggesting modest shifts in how traders view the scenario but little fundamental change in its rarity. At this level, traders see this outcome as remote.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if, following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, Republicans control the presidency, the House, and hold at least 60 Senate seats. It resolves No otherwise, based on the official results of all congressional elections held by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $162K |
| Resolves by | 2026-11-03 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic and political conditions in 2026 will shape the environment for the elections; major shifts in sentiment could move odds meaningfully.
- With nearly two years until the November 2026 deadline, considerable time remains for odds to adjust as the political landscape clarifies.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
