Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 11?
98%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain at 98% implied probability, indicating traders see Bitcoin remaining above the $62,000 threshold as highly likely. This probability rose sharply (+28 pts) over the past day, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment toward the Yes outcome.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's price on Binance BTC/USDT closes above $62,000 at the 12:00 ET noon candle on July 11, 2026; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 98% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +28 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $71K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-11 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Bitcoin's price action closer to July 11 will be the primary driver; any major market volatility or sharp downward moves could test whether the $62,000 level holds at the specific noon ET candle.
- The long time until resolution—more than a year and a half—leaves ample room for price discovery, though the extreme odds suggest the market is pricing in very limited downside risk to that threshold.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.