Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
73%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be the top-grossing film domestically in 2026. Implied probability moved down 4 percentage points over the past week, though it remained unchanged in the last 24 hours, suggesting modest erosion of confidence but no recent shock. This level reflects substantial but not overwhelming conviction that this title will outperform all other releases.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026 according to Box Office Mojo's data as of December 31, 2026. Only revenue earned within the 2026 calendar year counts toward the total.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 73% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $393K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Release schedule and competing blockbusters announced for 2026 could shift expectations about which film captures the largest share of annual box office revenue.
- Actual performance once films begin releasing and earn their opening and sustained grosses will provide concrete data to replace speculation.
- The deadline of December 31, 2026 is firm, leaving the full year for the outcome to materialize.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
